The Next 100 Years

George Friedman writes the occasional article for John Mauldin’s outstanding financial newsletter on topics of geopolitics. He is an engaging and thoughtful writer, so I knew I had to read his new book.

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century by George Friedman is my first book dealing with long term political forecasting. I really enjoyed it.

Friedman mixed history, culture, geography, technology patterns, and demographic changes into all his forecasts. I expect the forecasting to be more accurate in the early part of the 21st century and to become less accurate in the latter part, as the later forecasts are often dependent on the earlier forecasts.

What countries will be moving up in economic and military power in the 21st century?

1. USA – Having complete naval control over the planet is an advantage no other country has. Our navy is larger and more powerful than all other Navies combined.
2. Japan – Friedman predicts Japan will be the dominant Asian power, not China.
3. Turkey – Turkey is poised to become the most powerful country in the Islamic world.
4. Poland – Russia will make another attempt for power before imploding. Poland will receive massive amounts of military and technological aid from America. That will help it thwart Russia and become an economic force.
5. Mexico – As Europe ages, Mexico will continue to benefit from its close relationship with the USA.

I’m not going to give away the entire book, but I will say he makes a strong case for why China will not be the dominant power that everyone expects them to be. I recommend this book. There is a science “fiction” section in the middle that involved a lunar attack that although unbelievable was very entertaining.