105 posts
Back in 2013, I posted Approaching Nutrition From An Investor’s Mindset. It was a very popular post where I framed some of the nutritional debates as an investor would. We can also use an investing...
Read more →During the last financial crisis, this blog was focused heavily on finance. One of my ideas back then was a hedging strategy people could use when times were good. It involved buying "insurance like"...
Read more →Two posts ago I mentioned that I do not want to create disposable content. One form of disposable content is financial forecasting. Years ago I did it. Sometimes I got things right and sometimes I...
Read more →A few people have asked me why I stopped posting on finance. Until this week I didn't really have a complete answer. Now I think it was because I forgot what type of investor I was. When I forgot, I...
Read more →I was asked recently why I had not posted any 2012 Financial Predictions. The short answer is that my market timing skills have sucked since the end of 2009 and so I decided to stop doing...
Read more →There are over 10,000 banks and credit unions in the USA. Having a majority of the business go to four corrupt banks (Bank of America, Citibank, Wells Fargo, and Chase) is not healthy for an economy....
Read more →I just finished reading a book from one of my financial mentors. !The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation The Age of Deleveraging: Investment...
Read more →I've probably said something similar in the past, but I want to be clear about how I would invest my 401k if I recently lost my job. My strategy is based off hedging risk. The primary risks an...
Read more →In 2005 I watched the real estate craze from a front-row seat in San Diego. My home value rocketed up to insane levels. Those with homes were drunk with excitement on how much money their home was...
Read more →Over the past 15 years I've been known to say something like this: > Weight training is like a 401k. You don't see the results right away, but over time they add up. Cardio is like a weekly paycheck....
Read more →I love reading financial history and analysis. If you dig through the site archives, you will find reviews to many books that would bore most individuals. Not me. I love the stuff. So when John...
Read more →I know several people who are using the recession as an opportunity to pile up more student loans and get yet another college degree. Most are intelligent and qualified to do whatever they want but...
Read more →It is time to review my 2009 Financial Predictions. It seems like a million years since I wrote that post. > S&P 500 By the end of 2009 it will hit 633. This estimate is based solely off earnings...
Read more →The top financial story this month is the impending crash of the US Dollar. I do not know if the US Dollar will crash and if it does, when it would occur. Everyone seems to be looking at only half...
Read more →These are some financial predictions by my pal and former neighbor Derek Wilson. He doesn't have a blog and asked that I put his picks on the record. My posting of his picks is not an endorsement....
Read more →With a growing number of people dissing America these days, I thought I'd take the contrarian position and explain why America wins. Before I list the reasons, I think we need to explain what it...
Read more →My phone bill was too much, so I decided to do something about it. I have a cell phone that uses AT&T Wireless and a land line with Vonage. From a quality and service standpoint, I am satisfied with...
Read more →I was going through posts on my old blog and uncovered this financial book review. It was written in October 2004, which was a time when using leverage to flip condos was cool, and saving money was...
Read more →Right now we are in the eye of the hurricane. For weeks we've heard economists talk about recovery and green shoots. Nonsense. Note that these economists are the same ones the missed the recession...
Read more →Last month I attended a lecture by Ian Bremmer about political risk and financial markets. It was interesting enough to inspire me to read his book. !The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge...
Read more →When I heard The Federal Reserve was going buy Treasuries (aka Quantitative Easing), I couldn't help think of the final scene in The Planet of the Apes). > You maniacs! You blew it up! God damn you!...
Read more →Over the past month I've noticed my Glitter Gym has become less crowded. Each week I see less and less people. There are less members around in the mornings, late afternoons and even the weekend....
Read more →At the beginning of the year I listed 633 as my 2009 target for the S &P 500. We came close to that last week. My plan all along has been to lighten up on my short positions as I get close to that...
Read more →In the article Wall Street on the Tundra, financial writer Michael Lewis can brilliantly summarize the roots of the economic meltdown in just three sentences. > When you borrow a lot of money to...
Read more →From Christmas through the New Years, I told several people who stayed fully invested in the stock market that they received a holiday gift. That gift was the Santa Claus Rally. It was a wonderful...
Read more →Catchy title, eh? I exaggerate, but there definitely is an undercurrent of hostility between different parties in the housing crisis. When I posted Mr. Microsoft vs Seattle Billy, the comments...
Read more →Last September in the post Another Reason Real Estate Prices Will Drop Further, I outlined how the banks that got burned by easy lending would be forced to tighten their lending. At the time of the...
Read more →Yesterday I stumbled across a ridiculous article on Yahoo! Finance called Retirement Guide for 20- and 30-Somethings. It was provided by SmartMoney and sponsored by Fidelity. Gee, I wonder what their...
Read more →Some of my readers are already familiar with Seattle Billy. For those that missed those posts, here is all you need to know. - Bought a condo conversation at the absolute top of the Seattle real...
Read more →Back in March, I posted an entry called The Financial Wisdom of Seattle Billy. He is a likable guy, but when it comes to financial decisions, he is the perfect gauge of what not to do. From that...
Read more →I am not into Technical Analysis, nor do I care to be. My financial thesis is based on valuations and statistics. Timing the daily or weekly movement is not something I am equipped to do. This means...
Read more →I've bashed company managed 401Ks in the past. Now it feels like I'm kicking a corpse. Let me get one final punch in. Today I received the year end statement for my company 401K. When I say "my...
Read more →I want to expand on my 2009 Financial Prediction for the S&P 500. > By the end of 2009 it will hit 633. This estimate is based solely off earnings ($42.26 x PE of 15). Where did that $42.26 number...
Read more →Here are my 2009 Financial Predictions. My general thesis is: - Cash is King - If You're Long You're Wrong. S&P 500 - By the end of 2009 it will hit 633. This estimate is based solely off...
Read more →On July 30th, CNBC's Jim Cramer told his viewers: Yes, The Market Has Bottomed. > I am indeed sticking my neck out right here, right now, declaring emphatically that I believe the market will not...
Read more →A few days ago I posted Anatomy of a Bad Trade, where I openly discussed the worst stock trade I ever did and the lessons I learned. This week I had a picture perfect trade, where I followed my rules...
Read more →Occasionally I serve up a post on my investing successes. Now let me tell you about the worst trade I ever made and the lessons I learned. On January 3, 2008, on the post My Drudge Report Oil Short...
Read more →I live in a nice apartment building in an upscale area of Seattle. This week I noticed fliers posted around the building announcing a contest. They are having a $100 drawing each month for residents...
Read more →Yeah, home prices are falling. That is old news. I'm more interested in what is going on in the rental market. When I went looking for a rental unit back in May, there was little offered and the...
Read more →I love talking to people about investing. Listening to what people are doing and how they interpret the financial news is very helpful to me. Being a contrarian has been profitable to me. In the last...
Read more →A year ago, it seemed that everyone thought oil prices would continue to rise. I heard predictions for $200 and even $300 a barrel. Who would have guessed one year ago that oil would be down to $55?...
Read more →Some guys go fishing and have fishing tales. I don't fish. I invest. Here is my tale. Across the field of battered stocks was EEV. EEV is an UltraShort of the Emerging Markets. I know I said I...
Read more →Since I have quite a few posts on investing, I thought it was appropriate that I add a disclaimer. I am not a Certified Financial Planner. I'm just a regular Joe with an interest in economics....
Read more →This weekend I talked to several people regarding the current state of the markets. They all remembered that I had called for this correction and advised moving their money into fixed income. Most...
Read more →Back when the S&P 500 was much higher, I announced my target for this index was 1000. From my July 15, 2008 post Shooting the Messenger: > I see the S&P 500 dropping to 1000 by the end of the year....
Read more →In the post Investing 101 - Before You Invest, I gave my thoughts on how I approach post-tax investing. Now I want to cover the other side, which is pre-tax investing in a 401K or similar plan. Many...
Read more →This post is a follow-up to Investing 101 - Before You Invest. The biggest lesson I've learned in the last few years is what I call the Baby Boomer Lie. I've covered this on other posts, so forgive...
Read more →Considering last week was my most profitable week ever investing, it wasn't surprising that a few people approached me with questions on investing. It should be noted that although I'm doing great...
Read more →On Monday, when the market crashed, I was away from my computer. I missed the entire event. In fact, I was having lunch with Market Man, who is also bearish on the market. While most investors had...
Read more →How does the bailout change my outlook on investing in the next year? Not much. Kirk on Reasons Unbeknowst asked this question in the post The Most Predictable Meltdown in History: > Would you rather...
Read more →Although I couldn't care less about what George Soros thinks politically, I do have an interest in understanding how his mind works when it comes to investing. George Soros is a legendary investor...
Read more →Something about the proposed Paulson $700 Billion bailout doesn't seem right. You have very smart people making sound arguments against it, but I'm starting to wonder if there is another motive...
Read more →Saturday evening I posted As Soon As I Get My Head, which summarized my thoughts and concerns on what might happen in a post-Paulson bailout world. Even though I'm hedged to profit from a stock...
Read more →All day long I've reading, researching, and thinking about Paulson's No Banker Left Behind Plan and what is going to happen to the economy. This post isn't about the guilty parties that got us into...
Read more →Back in March, I wrote one of the most popular posts on this site titled Ultra ETFs and Counterparty Risk. It is a long detailed post where I outlined my concern that if a seismic shock to the...
Read more →In the post Irrational on the Way Up, Rational on the Way Down?, I touched on the psychology of would-be home buyers that watch prices drop faster than they can save money. Saving money and delaying...
Read more →I'm continually amazed on how otherwise intelligent people fail to learn the lessons of history. Whenever an asset class gets into an inflated bubble, the bubble does top out and the blowback is a...
Read more →OK, it isn't a true finance book, but it is one hysterical read. !Dave Barry's Money Secrets: Like: Why Is There a Giant Eyeball on the Dollar? Dave Barry's Money Secrets: Like Why Is There a Giant...
Read more →In the last few years, I've read quite a few books that are related to finance. Here are my favorites broken-down by sub-genre. Basic Investing !Bull's Eye Investing: Targeting Real Returns in a...
Read more →On March 9th, 2006 after receiving the money from the sale of my house in San Diego County, I wrote in the post Won The Lottery : > Yesterday, I received the money for the sale of that house. It was...
Read more →Back in March, I reviewed a financial history book called Devil Take the Hindmost. In that post, I listed how America 2008 was starting to look like Japan 1990. One of the items I mentioned was...
Read more →Three months I mentioned in the post Mr. Financial Planner - Go Home and Get Your Shine Box! how 100% of my company-managed 401K was in the Fixed Income fund. > The statement lists the returns for...
Read more →Please don't blame me. It isn't my fault your home price is plummeting, your 401K is getting rocked, and your bank is in trouble. I'm just a student of financial history who saw things differently...
Read more →After posting True Job Insurance Means Shorting Your Own Company earlier this week I realized it raised some questions that weren't answered in the post. DHammy stated accurately: > I think its...
Read more →On 3/17/2008 I posted IndyMac I'm Never Coming Back. > IndyMac has the lowest rating a bank can receive with Safe and Sound ratings. After seeing Bear Stearns implode in days, I didnt need much...
Read more →For years I've jokingly stated the number one investment rule is to: > Never invest in a company that would hire you or one of your friends. Although this gets a laugh, there is some truth to this...
Read more →Over the past three years, I've read many financial books across various subtopics. Although I had intended to take a break from the finance books, I couldn't pass up a chance to read this book....
Read more →This March in the post IndyMac Im Never Coming Back, I wrote how as soon as my CD matured I closed out my account. > This morning my CD with IndyMac bank matured. IndyMac has the lowest rating a bank...
Read more →In a post earlier this week TheTailGunner posted his success buying individual stocks since 2004. From The Market has been good to me: > On July 16th, 2004, I opened this account with $11,107.66. > ...
Read more →There is a bank that is popular with many people here in Seattle. It even has our state name in its name. Well, a few of my mutual friends have heard my reasons why I'd move my money to a different...
Read more →I lived in San Diego during their pension crisis a few years ago. The story was confusing and never held any interest with me. Boring. Change the channel. So why would I read a book about the dull...
Read more →In the post Meet Nassim Nicholas Taleb, I dropped in this quote without adding any comments. > the good investment strategy is to put 90% of your money in the safest possible government securities...
Read more →I rarely link to or discuss articles from newspapers, but I must make an exception. The Times Online has an outstanding profile titled Nassim Nicholas Taleb: the prophet of boom and doom. Read it....
Read more →Last September when I restarted my 401K plan at my company I put 100% of my investment in the Cash Fixed Fund account. This sparked a conversion with a financial planner, who felt he could show me...
Read more →Karl Denninger has some excellent advice for regular investors on how they can outperform the stock market indexes with minimal research and minimal trades. His rule which he learned from his Chicago...
Read more →Although there are several good sources on the Internet for financial and economic information, if I had to pick my favorite it would be John Mauldin's newsletter. The newsletter is free and is sent...
Read more →A pal of mine recently told me that I should read the 1922 investing classic: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. !Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Wiley Investment Classics) Reminiscences of a...
Read more →The company MacroShares offers two ETFs where you can bet on the direction of the price of oil. Back in January I posted My Drudge Report Oil Short Investment Tip. Using that information I was able...
Read more →After reading this book, I'm convinced that humans are programmed to not learn from history. !Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of...
Read more →Last fall I meet a good hearted nice fellow named Billy. Actually that is not his real name. I'm protecting his real name. Billy is a college graduate working a white-collar job. Billy is also a...
Read more →Every so often I'll get asked when I am going to buy a house again. My response is not until after prices bottom. This is when I'm asked to give a date prediction. It's not that easy. Instead of...
Read more →Last year I read The Black Swan. At times it was a difficult read, but it was outstanding. It's clear to me now that I should have read the author's previous book Fooled by Randomness first. In a...
Read more →I've received some emails regarding my recent post Ultra ETFs and Counterparty Risk. People are interested and amazed to learn there are ways to make money as the stock market drops. It used to be...
Read more →Last month in my post Ignore My Financial Advice, I said: > 6- Only Bank with the Best. > > Unless you've avoided the news for the past few months, then you are aware there are some banking...
Read more →In a few previous posts, I mentioned using leveraged ETFs as an investment tool. If you own any shares of ProShares, ProFunds, or Rydex leveraged funds, keep reading. The rest of you are free to go...
Read more →In my post Ignore My Financial Advice, one of my tips was to read financial history. One aspect of financial history I'd like to address is this baby-boomer nonsense that the stock market always goes...
Read more →One of my favorite genres of reading is financial history and nobody does a better job than Roger Lowenstein. !Origins of the Crash: The Great Bubble and Its Undoing Origins of the Crash: The Great...
Read more →Despite having one of the least attractive book covers I've ever seen, Just What I Said is an outstanding collection of economic columns from one of the best, Caroline Baum. !just-what-i-said Just...
Read more →A few people in the last month have asked me for financial advice. Giving financial advice is a delicate and risky endeavor. It's not like fitness or nutritional advice. If I tell an overweight...
Read more →Sometime in November, I got around to reading the Letter to the Shareholders for the Oakmark Equity and Income Fund. For about a year I had some money parked in this fund and I was up about $2,000....
Read more →I've noticed over the past few years that whenever a barrel of oil hits a new price threshold that the DrudgeReport will put out a big red banner or siren announcing it. And then something happens...
Read more →Why the modern world can't seem to predict outlier events with extreme impact is the focus of the book The Black Swan. !The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable The Black Swan: The Impact...
Read more →Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) was the hedge fund that imploded in 1998. It used massive amounts of leverage to generate high returns. As long as that leverage works in your favor, you can make...
Read more →Usually, I don't spend time reading a book that I know is going to be made into a movie. There are too many great books and too few great films. It is more logical to read a great book that has no...
Read more →Almost a year ago, I responded to a question posted on the San Diego Blog website. > What are your thoughts on the San Diego real estate market? Can we expect that prices will level (have they...
Read more →From Wikipedia: > In Greek mythology, Cassandra was a daughter of King Priam and Queen Hecuba of Troy whose beauty caused Apollo to grant her the gift of prophecy. However, when she did not return...
Read more →Here are 3 tips I'd like to pass onto anyone considering buying or renting downtown. 1. Avoid low-floor corner units - Being low means you get to hear a lot of street noise. Having that unit on a...
Read more →Since I left my last job on May 5th 2006, I haven't heard from anyone in the company. However, I have noticed that the stock tanked shortly after I quit. The red dot on the chart below is the day I...
Read more →When buying equities the game has a simple philosophy: Buy Low, Sell High. That's all fine and dandy if you believe prices are going higher. What happens if you wish to invest and you feel the market...
Read more →From San Diego's own Reasons Unbeknownst on Are Economists Too Optimistic on Housing's Soft Landing?: "I do not see a Housing Bubble; rather, we have an extended asset class" B.R. (Barry Ritholtz)...
Read more →The chart below was borrowed from The Big Picture blog. This one image is more valuable than my Finance degree from college. Because investing is never completely rational, understanding the...
Read more →There is this concept in investing called Socially Responsible Investing (SRI). According to Wikipedia: > SRI investors seek to align their personal values and financial goals by choosing to invest...
Read more →You always hear how renting is dumb and you are just throwing your money away. Under normal market conditions owning is a better financial decision than renting. However, real estate prices today in...
Read more →Back in the late months of the dot-com days, I sold all my stocks and used the money for a home down payment. It turned out to be a brilliant move. Had I stayed in the market another 6 months, a...
Read more →In 2001, I placed a 5% down payment on a house that was priced at $389,000. Quite a few people shared reservations that I wasn't making a very wise decision. One aunt who had previously lived in...
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